By 2020, sales of new vaccines that do not currently exist on the market may hit $24.8 billion, predicted market research firm Kalorama Information in a recent report.
In its report, “What’s Next in Vaccines?” Kalorama details over thirty conditions, including malaria, diabetes, Alzheimer’s and allergies, for which there may be vaccines in coming years. The company made its finding based on interviews and a review of potential vaccine products in Clinical Trials Phases I-III.
“These are projected revenues for 2020 for vaccines for which there will be products by 2020,” said Bruce Carlson, Kalorama’s publisher. “Ones that are now in Phase I, Phase II, Phase III, Pre-clinical, (in) areas like addiction, heart attack, allergy, diabetes.”
“A couple of trends are driving vaccines,” continued Carlson. “This was a static market, and more than a few commentators said a ‘dead’ market, in the 1980’s. Today it is thriving. As with all healthcare products, the aging population in world markets is a factor, but it’s the acceptance of adult vaccines (notably influenza) that provide the model for other products. Also the success of Gardasil has been a model here.”
Carlson noted the annual growth in vaccines is about 9 percent while in standard pharmaceuticals it is 6.5 percent.
“That has the industry’s attention,” he said. “Attention means research and development focus, which means research efforts we’ll see the results from in the future.”
Kalorama’s forecast allows for the fact that a number of vaccine candidates will not turn into promising vaccines. It assumes that some vaccine candidates currently in Phase III will be commercialized in 2012, some candidates in Phase II will enter the market in 2014, some in Phase I will launch in 2016 and vaccines still in pre-clinical testing will not see approval until in 2018, said the report.
According to Kalorama, the “likely case” based on the sales of successful products will total $24.8 billion in 2020.
“For a pharmaceutical industry facing patent expirations, lower sales, lower profits, layoffs, vaccines offer a bit of hope,” said Carlson. “Once launched, they tend to not require as large a sales force, which is helpful, though they necessitate pre-release marketing and negotiations with government agencies around the world for success.”