WALTHAM, MA – An expected $2 billion growth in the prostate cancer drug market though 2018 will be driven principally by the launch of emerging therapies in the metastatic hormone-refractory population, most notably Dendreon's Provenge, according to Decision Resources.

The research and advisory firm for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues' report finds that therapies in the metastatic hormone-refractory population – for which there is significant unmet need – will capture more than one-third of the overall prostate cancer drug market in 2018 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan.

It's expected that these emerging therapies will improve survival in the hormone-refractory metastatic setting, an achievement attained only by Sanofi-Aventis's Taxotere and, more recently, the therapeutic cancer vaccine Provenge.

Several agents appeared promising in early-stage development, but failed in Phase III clinical trials, highlighting the challenges faced in this setting.

Through 2018, Provenge, Roche/Chugai's Avastin, AstraZeneca's zibotentan, Johnson & Johnson's abiraterone and Algeta's Alpharadin will fuel market growth. Specifically, sales of Avastin will be driven by its use in combination with Taxotere, whilesales of Alpharadin will be driven by its use in patients who are not suitable for treatment with Taxotere, according to the report.

"We forecast Taxotere's patient share will increase in the metastatic hormone-refractory setting as a result of its use in combination with emerging agents such as Avastin," said Decision Resources Analyst Andrew Merron, Ph.D. "The use of Taxotere to treat patients not previously receiving cytotoxic agents will increase over the next decade as oncologists are expected to take a more prominent role in the treatment of prostate cancer patients."