WASHINGTON – A new analysis released by Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius contends that businesses' health insurance costs will be lower under health insurance reform - even though it does not take into account the full range of policies that will benefit businesses.

"Businesses across the country are struggling under the weight of high healthcare costs," Sebelius said. "Health insurance reform will help lift this burden, help businesses prosper, and ensure workers have the affordable, quality healthcare they need."

The analysis, conducted by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), indicates that since 2000, premiums have more than doubled, a rate three times faster than the growth in wages. Between 2000 and 2009, the percentage of firms offering coverage fell from 69 to 60, with much of that drop occurring in the past year alone.

Data also suggest that Small businesses in particular struggle under the current healthcare system.  For firms employing less than 10 workers, the erosion in coverage is striking -- from 57 percent offering coverage in 2000 to 46 percent offering coverage in 2009.

If nothing changes in the next decade healthcare costs for large businesses are projected to reach $28,530 per employee, a 116 percent increase from 2009.

In a November 30 letter to Senator Evan Bayh, CBO assessed the impact of the Patient Protection and Affordability Act on premiums for the individual, small-group, and large group markets. In 2016, CBO estimates that 159 million or 83 percent of privately insured people will be insured through employers.

Premiums for small business are expected to go down. With lower administrative overhead and fewer hours to deal with the issue, an estimate of $20 billion in savings could be realized over the next ten years.

The CBO also attributes savings to "providing a centralized marketplace in which consumers could compare the premiums of relatively standardized insurance products." This includes competitive pressure from a public health insurance option.

Other findings include:

• With nearly 30 million additional Americans gaining health insurance, the purchasing pool for businesses will expand and, largely, improve.  Big businesses will save from 0 to 3 percent on premiums due to the changing risk pool while small businesses could save 1 percent on premiums.

• With better options for small businesses, they would gain access to the health insurance exchanges and new benefit options and tax credits under reform. 3.6 million small businesses could qualify for a tax credit to help pay their premiums

• About 19 percent of people in employer-coverage in high-cost plans today will pay 9 to 12 percent less under reform. This translates to premium savings of at least $835 for single and $2,070 family policies.

• Small businesses that opt for comparable coverage under reform could save up to $390 for single policies and $965 for family policies. Assuming all 25 million people insured through small business save at least $390 (more for families), this will yield nearly $10 billion in savings in 2016 alone.

• Under current law, premiums are estimated to be $7,400 for single policies and $20,300 for families in the large group market. Under reform, large business premiums will drop by $100 per single policy and $200 per family policy.  With 134 million people enrolled in such coverage, this translates into at least $13.4 billion in savings in 2016 alone.

• The legislation would have minimal effects on private-sector premiums via cost shifting.